Still Praying for Peace

By now, you may have heard of a few violent acts that happened here in the last two weeks. On Saturday March 7, gunmen attacked a military barracks in Antrim, northwest of Belfast. Two soldiers were killed and several other people, including two civilian pizza delivery men, wounded. Within a few days, the dissident group Real IRA claimed responsibility for this attack. On Monday March 9, a police officer was killed by a gun-person while on patrol in Craigavon, which is some distance southwest of Belfast. Another dissident group, the Continuity IRA, claims to be behind this killing. The following weekend, youths engaged in rioting in Lurgan, close to Craigavon. With the exception of drunken rioting in Belfast on St Patrick’s Day, Northern Ireland has been fairly quiet since then.

Immediately following the first attack, and again after the second one, politicians and leaders from every community spoke out against the attacks. Politicians with links to Loyalist paramilitaries asked that no retaliation be carried out. Everyone re-affirmed their commitment to the political peace process. There have been peace rallies across the country, especially in Belfast. News reporters on the streets across Northern Ireland talked to people who expressed their determination to avoid going back to “the bad old days.” It seems that nearly everyone, from the very powerful to the average Joe, wants peace to remain.

However, this is obviously not the case for everyone. These attacks remind us that dissident republican groups still exist. The Real IRA (R.IRA), Continuity IRA (C.IRA), and others split off from the IRA over ceasefires at the beginning of the peace process and are still in existence, though the IRA itself has been disbanded. These dissident groups have little public support, and do not have the international support or the cash flow that allowed the IRA to be as active as it was. They have periodically attempted attacks, including two unsuccessful attacks on police since I’ve been here, but never on the scale of the past two weeks. There is some concern that the dissident groups are becoming more sophisticated and therefore more likely to actually cause damage. And despite their lack of public support, the dissidents hold some sway over what happens in their communities. One Craigavon man said on the news, after the shooting of the police officer, “if I knew who had done this, I wouldn’t tell the police, because then I might be the next one shot.”

The theory I’ve heard circulated is that dissident groups are trying to produce a crackdown from the police and/or other security forces. (The police force announced a couple of weeks ago that it was going to bring in special operations forces from Britain to do surveillance work, due to increased dissident threat.) In the past, when security forces reacted with a heavy hand, the IRA recruited significant numbers. Perhaps the dissidents are hoping to produce the same effect.

Nothing is clear-cut, however. Really, nothing is clear-cut in life, but it’s that much more obvious here. It’s possible that dissidents could step up their attacks and get a response in kind from the police or from Loyalists. But I don’t think that’s likely. My bigger concern is the rioting of youth the following weekend. Young people don’t remember the worst of the Troubles. The rioting seems to suggest that socially alienated teenagers might be likely to turn towards sectarian activity in an effort to fit in. To me, that’s the real danger – if the youth are dragged in, they could bring society with them. It just highlights the need for youth work and safe spaces.

There is some fear among people here that things could go back to the way they were 15 or 20 years ago. People are talking more about their experiences during the Troubles, offering stories during normal conversation. I think, if nothing else, the recent violence has brought back memories that have been ignored, repressed, or just plain forgotten. The optimist in me says this could even be a good thing, reminding people of the way things were and encouraging them to re-affirm their support for a political system that, while not always terribly effective, is at least peaceful. From the public outcry and the political response, I’m still confident the peace process will hold. I’ve heard too many people, from all corners of the island, say they don’t want to go back. No one wants war, sure, but if a country actively doesn’t want war, it’s less likely to come.

Word of the Week: “Knock-on effect.” It’s the equivalent of saying, “domino effect.” When one thing happens, it causes an effect, which in turn causes something else to happen, etc. The knock-on effect is the real concern in relation to the recent violence: what could these actions set in motion?